Real estate to profits era
In may,
the real estate control policy is still being: two suites "recognize room
and recognize loan" officially released new standard, the national
development and reform commission will launch the house property tax as the key
work of this year, the ministry of finance of the liquidation of the land value
added tax calls for strengthened and YuZheng. At the same time, local rules
also in further pressure: Beijing
is in the third set of comprehensive stop mortgage at the same time, and the
room age in more than 20 years basic stopped loan housing. The policy is
forcing developers are abandoning the last silk fantasy, the national a line of
urban real estate market appear "price volume together down" the
situation. The research institute of China index statistics also show, a city
may volume "ks", in monitoring of 30 cities, clinch a deal the area
almost fallen, total lost about 44%, some of the city's volume set a record
low. At the same time, Beijing, Shanghai,
shenzhen, a city of more than fifty percent in building a drop in prices, with Shanghai, guangzhou
and shenzhen three city, has such estate prices fell by nearly 15%. Developers
in the opening, dark drop and promotion on sale means more up significantly,
and take the lead in reduction of evergrande vanke, the taste good, quarter
sales up to the top two. So, house prices in the movements of the experience
for more than a month after the game, the price of the decline of the space
already open, the person that buy a house to see the policy of determination,
developers also began to no longer have unrealistic fancies policy, facing the
land value added tax liquidation of the storm and housing property tax levy
more and more quick steps, if have developers self-reliant cash flow not
nervous about the hard shoulder, I'm afraid of is their only passive. For the
current this "quantity price fall together" situation, all circles is
standing in a short-term the view of reading, in fact, this "quantity
price fall together" significance not only indicates the adjustment and
control policies short-term effect, more could mean that China's real estate
market will never be the farewell profits era, into the cycle of developing
smoothly. Why so of words, there are three reasons: first, the control policy
of not only aims to short-term restrain high prices, more is to change nowadays
the real estate speculation, excess investment, the real estate return to the
basic needs of living.
For this purpose, except for some short-term policy
besides, more attention to the system construction of the long-term: for
example, through the tax policy adjustment of real estate reasonable
requirement, through the supply structure change of housing supply 70% of the
required guarantee basic living demand the small family of commodity house and
policy housing. That is to say, from restrain investment, in the view of
speculation, this is a will insist for a long time policy, also will be the
basic goals of real estate public policy. Second, in view of China's current
high thrust is the biggest real estate speculation and excessive consumption,
and high house prices and to some extent an obstacle of the development of
China's urbanization and most resistance, when home prices from people's basic
income is too wide of social resources and national wealth will be real
estate's kidnapping. Therefore, China's economic transformation, though the
process of urbanization is inseparable from the real estate development, but is
absolutely refuse to high house prices, the government made it very clear.
Third, China's per capita has more than the living area = average 30 flat,
according to real estate development law, break through this juncture, means
that the rapid growth of real estate will end, real estate itself will be
pulled from the economic engine of the livelihood of the people live and
regression function, real estate public policy in the future will not only be
an important economic policy, more will be an important social policy. Around
the housing needs of the future, the government will be in perfect affordable
housing supply at the same time, move a lot of secondhand the room into the rental
market, to construct a and the people income and the urbanization development
adaptation of the housing structure, the reasonable housing structure will be
on certain level of house prices appear high stop. So far, our basic can judge,
in the next one to two years, China's high house prices will with the balance
of supply and demand and say goodbye to the basic windfall profits era, house
prices in the future will be at least 30% lower said or done. Through this
adjustments to profits for speculation and the main characters of the real
estate market price logic will occur disruptive change, real estate will
eventually return to small profit and live.